In numbers: Brighton and Hove City Council elections 2023
You may wish to download the full spreadsheet before reading this article.
This article is based on an Excel spreadsheet I have generated using official data derived from Brighton and Hove City Council, which — like most local authorities — has yet to discover the importance of publishing such information in an open, machine-readable format. You can download the spreadsheet here.
It is focused mainly on the three main political parties that comprise almost all of the 54 seats on the new council: Labour, 38; Greens, 7; Conservatives, 6; Independents, 3. Of the 54 councillors, 29 (54%) are women — including one trans woman.
Specifically, I look at how candidates performed in the 23 council wards — compared with 21 in previous elections — across the three Brighton and Hove parliamentary constituencies:
Hove (17 Labour councillors, three Conservatives, one Independent): Brunswick and Adelaide (two Labour councillors); Central Hove (two Labour); Goldsmid (three Labour); Hangleton (three Labour); North Portslade (one Labour, one — ex-Labour — Independent); South Portslade (two Labour); Westbourne and Poets’ Corner (two Labour); Westdene and Hove Park (three Conservatives); Wish (two Labour);
Brighton Pavilion: (10 Labour councillors, seven Greens, three Conservatives): Coldean and Stanmer (two Labour councillors); Hanover and Elm Grove (three Labour); Hollingdean and Fiveways (three Labour); Patcham and Hollingbury (three Conservatives); Preston Park (two Greens, one Labour); Regency (one Green, one Labour); Round Hill (two Greens); West Hill and North Laine (two Greens);
Brighton Kemptown (11 Labour councillors, two Independents): Kemptown (two Labour councillors); Moulsecoomb and Bevendean (three Labour councillors); Queen’s Park (two Labour councillors); Rottingdean and West Saltdean (two Independents); Whitehawk and Marina (two Labour); Woodingdean (two Labour).
[A future article will analyse the aggregation of votes for each of the three parties in each of the three constituencies — even though it is almost impossible to infer what might happen in a general election that could be up to 18 months away.]
The turnout across Brighton & Hove was 83,426 (40.8% of 204,255 electors).
The election was fought on new ward boundaries, aimed at trying to equalise the population in each of the 23 wards.
It should be noted, however, that ward electors still ranged from 6,612 in Coldean and Stanmer to 11,658 in Westdene and Hove Park.
Ward turnouts ranged from a shocking 22.4% in Coldean and Stanmer to a remarkable 52.5% in Rottingdean and West Saltdean.
As a result, a Labour candidate (Tobias Sheard) was elected in Coldean and Stanmer with just 510 votes (7.7% of all electors). Which means more than nine in 10 people did not vote for Cllr Sheard.
In contrast, Leo Littman, a Green candidate in Preston Park, missed out on being elected, despite getting 2,103 votes (18.3% of all electors).
Fewer than 20 votes prevented the Greens getting three more seats, at the expense of Labour: Ricky Perrin (Green, Regency) lost out by a single vote;
Hannah Allbrooke (Green, Brunswick and Adelaide) lost out by six votes; and Littman (Green, Preston Park) lost out by 32 votes.
Because of my personal interest, I want to make several important points, the background to which was spelled out in a previous article: Back to business-as-usual for Sir Keir Starmer’s authoritarian, anti-democratic party. [Note: I updated my previous forecast of 34 seats for Labour as soon as the first ballot boxes were opened, but even my revised forecast of 36 was an underestimate.]
Firstly, all Labour candidates were imposed — without any reference to local party members — by a panel of anonymous party apparatchiks with no connection with Brighton and Hove. This is important for all sorts of reasons, not least in terms of party patronage— given the fact that Labour Group councillors will receive well over £2.5 million in allowances over the next four years.
Secondly, 36 of these candidates were formally — and secretly — imposed in the most winnable seats shortly after September 20 last year, when local party members were first invited to put their names forward (with a two-week deadline — see image below). Members were told that failure to apply by October 3 “will bar you from standing for the Labour party in this election”:
My analysis shows that all but two of the 36 candidates imposed in the first tranche (certainly before December 12 2022) were ultimately elected. The two who missed out were Lundy Li Mackenzie (Westdene and Hove Park) and Dr Ron White (Rottingdean and West Saltdean).
Interestingly, such was the implosion of the Conservatives and the collapse of the incumbent Greens that five Labour candidates — all of them women — were elected, even though they were imposed several months after the most winnable seats were stitched up for pro-Starmer candidates.
Interestingly, one of the five was Liz Loughran, in Preston Park, whose partner is Gordon Nardell KC, a former Southwark councillor, appointed by Jeremy Corbyn in 2018 to be Labour’s in-house counsel responsible for overseeing disciplinary processes.
Reportedly saying he “absolutely” shared Corbyn’s views on Israel, he quit after a year — much to the delight of the Jewish Labour Movement.
The pro-Israel organisation said: “Gordon Nardell’s tenure as General Counsel will be remarkable only for the absolute chaos and political manipulation within the Governance and Legal Unit that took place on his watch.”
Some — but not all — of the five who were imposed as candidates late in Labour’s rigged “selection” process benefited from the Labour Party rule that at least one woman stands in each ward (except in the case where there are longstanding sitting councillors, such as Les Hamilton — of the so-called “Ben Gowlett Trust” — and Alan Robins in South Portslade).
An exception was made in West Hill and North Laine, where Thomas Matthew Chatfield and John Cooper — presumably because no Labour women were willing to be on the ballot paper.
Amusingly, such was scale of the Labour landslide on May 4, a number of self-identifying socialists managed not only to make it through the vetting process — including “due diligence” checks on social media, panel interviews, and backdated completion of “campaign diaries” — but also to secure a place on the council.
One such newly-elected councillor was recalled for a second interview after an ancestor was found to have been an Irish trade union pioneer and ally of James Connolly, the Republican executed in 1916 in the wake of the Easter Rising.
My third important point relates to Peter Kyle, the MP for Hove who did so much to sabotage Labour’s election campaigns in 2017 and 2019. Kyle’s grandly-titled “Director of Operations”, Chris Henry stood down to make way, in Westbourne and Poets’ Corner, for Julie Cattell (who is suing the Labour Party after being found guilty of targeting Jewish colleagues using anti-semitic language).
More significantly, Kyle’s acolytes imposed by his friends in the party bureaucracy, now hold a clear majority in the new Labour Group, whose leader Bella Sankey was crowned at an ad hoc meeting after newly-elected councillors were corralled — by Ivor Caplin, of all people! — into a sideroom at the Brighton Centre within minutes of the final result being announced. Established practice is for the leader to be elected at the first Labour Group meeting a few days after a city council election.
Sankey, who has ambitions to be the Labour parliamentary candidate in East Worthing and Shoreham at the next general election (having already failed to make the long list in Hastings), has previously expressed admiration for Corbyn’s “principles and integrity” — in a tweet that appears to have since been deleted.
Below is her tweet when, as Labour’s candidate in Arundel and South Downs in the last general election, she replied to Andrew Griffith, the Conservative candidate who won on December 12 2019:
Unique in the years since I joined the Labour Party in Brighton in 2006, Sankey was privileged, in September last year, to email all party members across Brighton and Hove, explaining how she wanted to stand as a council candidate “next May”. Within weeks she was handpicked to stand in the Wish by-election, in which she was triumphant.
That’s enough commentary and analysis. Here are some headlines — but you can generate your own if you download the master spreadsheet:
Gender
54 councillors: 29 women (54%), 26 men
222 candidates: 91 women (41%), including one trans woman; 131 men
Labour: 26 women (48%) out of 54 candidates
Greens: 29 women (54%) out of 54 candidates
Tories: 15 women (30%) out of 50 candidates
Labour: 20 women (53%) out of 38 Labour councillors
Greens: 5 women (71%) out of 7 Green councillors
Tories: 3 women (50%) out of 6 Tory councillors
Wards
Biggest:
Westdene and Hove Park — 11,658 electors
Patcham and Hollingbury — 11,622 electors
Hanover and Elm Grove — 11,518 electors
Preston Park — 11,470 electors
Smallest:
Coldean and Stanmer — 6,612 electors
Round Hill — 6,794 electors
Queen’s Park — 7,099 electors
South Portslade — 7,337 electors
Westbourne and Poets’ Corner — 7,396 electors
Turnout
Highest:
Rottingdean and West Saltdean — 51.5%
Hollingdean and Fiveways — 49.5%
Westdene and Hove Park — 46.2%
Wish — 45.9%
Westbourne and Poets’ Corner — 45.9%
Lowest:
Coldean and Stanmer — 22.4%
Moulsecoomb and Bevendean — 28.8%
Whitehawk and Marina — 30.2%
North Portslade — 33%
West Hill and North Laine — 35.5%
Top five votes (of the 54 elected)
Therese Fowler (Labour, Hollingdean and Stanmer) — 2,662 votes
Mohammed Asaduzzaman (Labour, Hollingdean and Stanmer) — 2,553 votes
John Hewitt (Labour, Hangleton and Knoll) — 2,501 votes
Amanda Grimshaw (Labour, Hangleton and Knoll) — 2,490 votes
Tim Rowkins (Labour, Hanover and Elm Grove) — 2,471 votes
Top Green: Steve Davis (Preston Park) — 2,162 votes
Top Tory: Samer Bagaeen (Westdene and Hove Park) — 2,246
Bottom five votes (of the 54 elected)
Tobias Sheard (Labour, Coldean and Stanmer) — 510
Mitchie Alexander (Labour, Coldean and Stanmer) — 688
Alison Louise Thomson (Labour, Regency) — 920
Lucy Helliwell (Labour, North Portslade) — 1,045
Andrei Nicolas Czolak (Labour, Brunswick and Adelaide) — 1,047
Bottom five votes (out of all 222 candidates)
Ronald William Reader (Independent, Rottingdean and West Saltdean) — 30
John Gartside (UKIP, Wish) — 49
Martin Wooller (Liberal Democrat, Coldean and Stanmer) — 59
Patricia Ann Mountain (UKIP, Westbourne and Poets’ Corner) — 65
Penelope Ann Iveson (TUSC, Coldean and Stanmer) — 76
Top five votes (of the 168 not elected)
Leo Littman (Green, Preston Park) — 2,103
Lundy Li Mackenzie (Labour, Westdene and Hove Park) — 2,081
Fona Alison Wright (Green, Hanover and Elm Grove) — 2,050
Warren Morgan (Labour, Westdene and Hove Park) — 2,040
Wai Lee (Green, Hanover and Elm Grove) — 1,989
Highest proportion of electors who voted for a candidate
Bella Sankey (Labour, Wish) — 29.8% of electors (2,216) voted for her
Paul James Nann (Labour, Wish) — 27.7% of electors (2,062) voted for him
Bridget Fishleigh (Independent, Rottingdean and West Saltdean) — 27.% (2,266) voted for her
Julie Anne Cattell (Labour, Westbourne and Poets’ Corner) — 25.8% (1,911) voted for her
Tristram Deane Burden (Labour, Queen’s Park) — 25.7% (1,822) voted for him
Highest Green: Pete West (Round Hill) — 20.7% (1,408) voted for him
Highest Conservative: Samer Bagaeen (Westdene and Hove Park) — 19.3% (2,246) voted for him
Three nearest-misses
Ricky Perrin (Green, Regency) lost out by a single vote
Hannah Allbrooke (Green, Brunswick and Adelaide) lost out by six votes
Leo Littman (Green, Preston Park) lost out by 32 votes
Top five votes
Therese Fowler (Labour, Hollingdean and Stanmer) — 2,662 votes
Mohammed Asaduzzaman (Labour, Hollingdean and Stanmer) — 2,553 votes
John Hewitt (Labour, Hangleton and Knoll) — 2,501 votes
Amanda Grimshaw (Labour, Hangleton and Knoll) — 2,490 votes
Tim Rowkins (Labour, Hanover and Elm Grove) — 2,471 votes
Top Green: Steve Davis (Preston Park) — 2,162 votes
Top Tory: Samer Bagaeen (Westdene and Hove Park) — 2,246
Bottom five votes (out of all 222 candidates)
Ronald William Reader (Independent, Rottingdean and West Saltdean) — 30
John Gartside (UKIP, Wish) — 49
Martin Wooller (Liberal Democrat, Coldean and Stanmer) — 59
Patricia Ann Mountain (UKIP, Westbourne and Poets’ Corner) — 65
Penelope Ann Iveson (TUSC, Coldean and Stanmer) — 76
Bottom five votes (of the 54 elected)
Tobias Sheard (Labour, Coldean and Stanmer) — 510
Mitchie Alexander (Labour, Coldean and Stanmer) — 688
Alison Louise Thomson (Labour, Regency) — 920
Lucy Helliwell (Labour, North Portslade) — 1,045
Andrei Nicolas Czolak (Labour, Brunswick and Adelaide)
Top five votes (of the 168 not elected)
Leo Littman (Green, Preston Park) — 2,103
Lundy Li Mackenzie (Labour, Westdene and Hove Park) — 2,081
Fiona Alison Wright (Green, Hanover and Elm Grove) — 2,050
Warren Morgan (Labour, Westdene and Hove Park) — 2,040
Wai Lee (Green, Hanover and Elm Grove) — 1,989
Highest proportion of electors who voted for a candidate
Bella Sankey (Labour, Wish) — 29.8% of electors (2,216) voted for her
Paul James Nann (Labour, Wish) — 27.7% of electors (2,062) voted for him
Bridget Fishleigh (Independent, Rottingdean and West Saltdean) — 27.% (2,266) voted for her
Julie Anne Cattell (Labour, Westbourne and Poets’ Corner) — 25.8% (1,911) voted for her
Tristram Deane Burden (Labour, Queen’s Park) — 25.7% (1,822) voted for him
Highest Green: Pete West (Round Hill) — 20.7% (1,408) voted for him
Highest Conservative: Samer Bagaeen (Westdene and Hove Park) — 19.3% (2,246) voted for him
Finally, a little light relief for those who have made it this far. There is good larger-scale evidence that position on the ballot paper, determined by alphabetical order of candidates’ surnames, influences outcomes.
It is difficult to draw too many conclusions from jsut 22 candidates in 23 wards (where the average number of candidates was about nine). But here is the data:
A-Z
17 of the 54 councillors elected were among the top three names on the ballot paper:
First: 9 — of which 7 got the most votes in the ward
Second: 5
Third: 3
4th: 7
5th: 4
6th: 3
7th: 7
8th: 8
9th: 5
10th: 2
12th: 1
Elected (54 out of 222):
A-D: 12 out of 49 (24%)
E-I: 14 out of 48 (29%)
J-M: 9 out of 45 (20%)
N-R: 7 out of 29 (24%)
S-V: 8 out of 32 (25%)
W-Z: 4 out of 19 (21%)
Candidates’ surnames
A-D: 49 out of 222 (22%)
E-I: 48 (22%)
J-M: 45 (20%)
N-R: 29 (13%)
S-V: 32 (14%)
W-Z: 19 (9%)
